Why Were the Polls So Wrong?


Elmer was finally home after a hard day’s work. He, his wife Myrtle and son Rufus sat down to enjoy a quiet dinner and to chat about the events of the day. Then the phone rang. Elmer answered the phone and explained to the pollster his family was having dinner and he could not talk. He politely excused himself and hung up. Rufus had to finish his homework so he excused himself and went to his room to study. Elmer and Myrtle cleaned the table, washed the dishes and retired to their respective recliners in the living room. They skipped past the news and reality TV shows and managed to find a classic episode of The Beverly Hillbillies when the phone rang again.

“Good evening. My name is Jocko and I am calling from the Fux2You Research Consortium. We are known as F2Y. May I speak with an adult member of the household?”

“Yes, what is this about?”

“We would like a few minutes of your time to answer some survey questions about the upcoming election.”

“I’m sorry Jocko but I would rather not participate. You see, I am not really interested in politics. I already know who I am voting for and I prefer to spend the time with my family.”

“I understand. I’m sorry but I didn’t catch your name.”

“Elmer.”

“Yes Elmer, you see it’s like this. F2Y uses the information you provide to fund daycare centers for baby seals of dyslexic water buffaloes. You do want to help the poor baby seals don’t you?”

“Well Jocko, I guess, but I am not sure how any of this will help the baby sea…”

“Thank you so much Elmer!”

Elmer was polite and did not tell Jocko to fuck off. Elmer glanced at Myrtle who looked back and silently mouthed, “Who is it?” Elmer told her it was a survey to help baby seals. Myrtle rolled her eyes and turned back to the TV. For the next 25 minutes, Elmer answered a battery of questions about himself and his thoughts on the election. At the end of the call the show had ended and Myrtle turned her back to him because Elmer talked through the entire program.

That was not the only call that evening. Elmer received two more calls before the night was over. Myrtle got up during the last call and told Elmer to not bother coming to bed and to just sleep in his recliner in case anyone else called.

Elmer did not give a shit about politics. He was an educated responsible citizen and voted in every election. He researched the issues and the candidates and made his decision for whom to vote without needing others’ opinions. He was not obsessed about convincing others to vote like him because Elmer was an adult and treated others as he wanted to be treated. He knew everybody had a right to their opinion and their opinion was every bit as valuable as his even if he disagreed with it. Elmer understood politicians became politicians for their own personal gain and they would change their morality like a chameleon changed colors if they thought it would gain them one extra vote. Elmer was not so naïve to think politicians were public servants unless maybe they were serving the public a smorgasbord of bullshit to get elected.

Polling companies use your freely given information to make predictions about the outcome of future events. Some are scams but all are intrusive. They intrude into your private time to make money for themselves. They sell this information at a hefty price but do not share a single penny with you. The organizations who pay the polling companies expect the predictions to be accurate because they will depend upon them to make investment decisions.

You may be asking, “Why didn’t Elmer just hang up like he did on the first call?” Many polling companies use a feature called “spoofing” which is when a caller disguises their telephone number from the called party’s CallerID. By doing that, the called party does not know the real number of the caller. Elmer most likely did not get Jocko’s actual telephone number. Elmer could block Jocko’s number but Jocko can continue calling using different spoofed numbers.

So the next logical question is, “Why didn’t Elmer just list his number on the Do Not Call list?” Great question. The problem is the Do Not Call list only stops calls from companies attempting to sell you something. The list exempts political calls and surveys among other things. It means sleazebag politicians and survey companies are legally allowed to bombard your phone ad infinitum.

How do pollsters get your number? Some polling companies buy lists of names and telephone numbers from aggregators then they work their way down the list. That is why a pollster may know your name before they call. Other polling companies use something called Random Digital Dialing (RDD) in which a machine is programmed to call all numbers with a specific three-digit area code and three-digit prefix called the NPA-NNX. In the past, this method allowed the pollster to target a very specific geographic area since the first six digits of a land line were associated with a specific area code and central office exchange. With the advent of mobile phones this accuracy declined because mobile phones were not restricted to a single office. For example, you could have a telephone number with a 212 area code (New York) but live and work in Los Angeles.

Elmer was unsuccessful in reducing the number of calls by hanging up or asking them to remove his number from their call list. Myrtle was getting used to sleeping alone and watching The Beverly Hillbillies by herself. She thought Jethro Bodine was very handsome.

Elmer missed cuddling with Myrtle. Hugging his recliner was not nearly as fun. As he tossed fitfully in his recliner, he dreamed of finding the pollsters and grabbing their phones and smashing them on the floor. He dreamed of screaming terrible angry words at them. Elmer was not an angry or violent person and his dreams bothered him. There had to be a way to stop these calls but how? Even the government was on their side. Elmer wanted to hurt these polling companies where it mattered most.

Then it came to him. Why were these companies constantly harassing him? For money. Who paid them? Their clients, many of whom were sleazebag politicians. Why did their clients pay them? Because they provided good information upon which the client could make investment decisions. Eureka! What if the information they sold their clients was flawed? Their clients would be unhappy and eventually fire them. That would stop the calls.

Elmer continued to answer the pollsters’ calls but now he was having fun. Elmer told Myrtle of his plan and she thought it was funny and wanted to play too. They discussed the outrageous things they would tell the next pollster. They could not be too outrageous because they did not want to tip off the pollsters of their little game. And on it went until the night of the election.

Elmer and Myrtle watched the election returns sitting in their comfortable recliners in the living room. As the night wore on, the talking heads commented about how wrong their polls had been. There was figurative gnashing of teeth and rending of garments. The talking heads contorted themselves coming up with cockamamie demographic rationalizations to explain why they were so wrong. Elmer and Myrtle chuckled because they finally knew they were not the only ones who had come up with the same idea.

The calls stopped but of course that was because the election was over. Elmer and Myrtle are looking forward to the next election cycle to spew some really bombastic shit at the pollsters. Elmer does not wish the pollsters any harm. He just wants them to respect his privacy and leave him alone. He knows there are people who are ok with being interrupted by telephone calls as they use the bathroom or make love and they respect their right to participate in the survey – even if he disagrees with them.

To the pollsters and the sleazebag politicians: You have a job to do and it is not an easy one. Very few of the people you call want to participate in surveys especially during their private family time. Respect that. Also, it may help if you offer something for participating in your surveys. Don’t be such greedy bastards and share a little of the wealth with the people who helped make you rich. Pass on the added costs to your clients if you have to. Maybe they will think twice before ordering so many family time disrupting surveys.

To everyone else: Be like Elmer.